The Logic of Ceasefires in Civil War
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Ceasefires play a role in almost all civil war peace processes. Yet existing studies undertheorize the ways which different logics drive design of ceasefire agreements, and effect this has on violence suspension. Building bargaining theory literature, we identify problems conflict parties face over course conflict, three classes they use to address these problems. We argue that ceasefires is driven both by underlying provisions contain. PA-X data capture included within written between 1990 2019, using Uppsala Conflict Data Program georeferenced event data, estimate models survival, with deaths as main measure whether remains place. find definitive (i.e., agreements demobilization incompatibility provisions), followed preliminary compliance mechanisms), are associated longer periods suspension than cessation hostilities lack such provisions. discuss implications our results for third seeking facilitate transition from peace.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Studies Quarterly
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['0020-8833', '1468-2478']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab026